Issue No. 39

The TT Composite Index contracted 1.29% during October as both the TT Cross Listed Index and ALL T&T Index retreated 0.30% and 1.55% month on month respectively. JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) was this month’s main decliner in the TT Cross Listed Index, losing 2.08% month on month. In the All TT Index, Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) continued its downswing for another month, falling 14.42%. Market Activity during October was derived from 26 securities being traded of which 11 stocks advanced, 14 declined and 1 held firm.

The West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) is this month’s featured earnings performance update with the release of its 9-month financial results ended September 2023. The Group recorded a 30% decline in Profit after Tax over the comparable 2022 period. This led to the drop in WCO’s EPS to $0.59, down from $0.83 in 9M 2022.  Despite the decline in its performance, the company is expected to pay $0.26 dividend per share to investors on November 28^th, 2023. 

In October, US equities posted a -2.20% return, continuing its downward trend which begun in August, after recording 5 months of positive returns. The continued fall in US stocks was due in part to the geopolitical uncertainty arising from the Israel-Hamas conflict resulting in flight to safety as investors’ risk appetite dampened.

Despite the contraction in US equities and inflationary pressures, the US economy continues to show resilience. US GDP accelerated 4.9% annualized in the preliminary Q3 report fueled by increasing consumer spending. At its November 1^st meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintains the possibility of a future hike. US inflation remained flat in September at 3.7% compared to August 2023, significantly lower than its peak in June 2022 of 9.1%.

Falling off its peak in September, crude oil prices stood at US$81.02 per barrel in October vs US$90.79 per barrel in September. Investors remain vigilant of the Israel-Hamas conflict as it stirs up concerns of potential oil supply disruptions which may yield higher energy prices.

October proved to be another challenging month for investors as declines were recorded across both the equities and bond market space. Market volatility, both locally and internationally, is expected to continue for the remainder of the year due to market sentiment and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This, however, can provide medium to long term investors, with attractive entry points to acquire fundamentally strong assets while averaging down on cost if applicable.

The rise in short term yields continued in September as the 3-month rate moved from 0.92% to 1.0% and the 1-year TT yield advanced to 1.66% from 1.55%. Yields on the longer end of the curve softened month on month, with the biggest decline seen on the 30-year rate. Local headline inflation, measured on a year-on-year basis, stood at 3.90% in September vs 4.00% in August 2023.

Net Official reserves remain relatively stable during the month, closing at $6.3 billion in September, the equivalent of 7.9 months import cover. Liquidity contracted from $7.2 billion in August to $5.9 billion in September.

Within the local corporate bond space, the National Investment Fund (NIF) 2 is anticipated to come to market by year end. The demand for this five-year facility will likely capture the attention of investors due to limited local fixed income options and excess market liquidity.

For the first time since 2007, the 10-year US treasury yield surpassed 5% driven by positive US economic data. This increase in yields was observed globally, affecting returns in various bond markets.

The US 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.88% on October 31^st, 29 points higher when compared to a yield of 4.59% on September 30^th. The US spread between the 2-year yield and 10-year yield narrowed to 0.19% in October relative to 0.44% in September and 0.76% spread in August. Longer term yields boosted this month with both the 20-year and 30-year yields rising above 5%, ending the month at 5.21% and 5.04% respectively.

As bond yields continue to move higher, equities will likely face further challenges as bonds become more competitive to investors and the market moves further away from equity friendly rates. 

Fund of the Month

Scotia Money Market Fund (US$)

-Short Term Fixed Income Instruments

-Low Risk

- Capital Preservation, Liquidity