Issue No. 67

The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market completed February 2026 with another month of mixed results. The Trinidad and Tobago Composite Index (TTCOMP) ended the month with an overall total return of -1.18%, weighed down by the index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks which declined 2.69%, however, the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) rebounded, posting a positive total return of 3.60%.

The main detractor was ANSA McAl Limited (AMCL), which fell 12.82%, followed by L.J. Williams Limited “B” (LJWB), falling 12.07% over the month. The month’s top gainers were Massy Holdings Ltd (MASSY) and Guardian Media Limited (GML) with monthly gains of 9.94% and 9.68% respectively. Trading activity was dominated by National Enterprises Limited (NEL), which was the volume leader, followed by One Caribbean Media Limited (OCM).

During the month of February, 2026, some positive signs of a renewed interest for T&T regarding cross-boarder gas initiatives as the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took a decision to issue general licences 49 and 50 to BP and Shell, among other international energy companies, to negotiate and enter into contracts to develop gas fields in Venezuela. However, while energy prospects are trending in a positive manner, local pricing pressures has impacted local manufacturers, with locally-listed company, Trinidad Cement Ltd (TCL) informing its customers of a 15% increase in the ex-factory price of its cement bags effective Monday 9th February 2026, then disclosing a decision to shut down Readymix (West Indies) Ltd following what it described as an 'extensive business evaluation' prompted by declining sales and rising costs. Moreover, foreign exchange demand and supply imbalances continued to weigh on banks, with First Citizens Bank announcing a reduction of the foreign exchange limit on Mastercard credit cards.

On the macro-economic front, the rate of inflation in T&T for January 2026 was 0.7%. The inflation rate measures the percentage change in the All-Items Index for the month of January 2026 over January 2025. The 0.7% recorded represents an increase from 0.4% for the previous period (December 2025/December 2024). The inflation rate for the comparative period (January 2025/January 2024) was 0.7%.

During the month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team issued their concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission to T&T which was held during a January 27 – February 9, 2026, visit. Within their report, the IMF highlighted that the T&T economy is gradually recovering to pre-pandemic levels amid persistent headwinds. They confirmed that the non-energy sector has been underpinning recent growth, while stagnant production in the mature energy sector weighed on activity. They noted that inflation and unemployment remain at low levels and the banking sector and private credit remained robust. T&T’s economic outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty, and the balance of risks is tilted to the downside in the near term and to the upside in the long term. 

Given this backdrop, our team’s approach to local equity and fixed income investing continues to be guided by active management, robust fundamental research and seeking attractive opportunities with a long-term view for the benefit of unitholders. 

Amid a busy month of economic and geopolitical developments and heightened volatility, most global equity markets advanced in February, with the U.S. the notable exception. Canadian equities led major markets, as the S&P/TSX Composite Index (USD) rose 7.0%, with 10 of 11 sectors advancing, with the Materials, Consumer Discretionary  and Consumer Staples leading gains, while Information Technology was the only sector to decline. In contrast, U.S. equities lagged, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% for the month. Fixed income markets also delivered positive returns, as U.S. bonds rose 1.6% gauged by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Commodity performance was mixed as gold advanced and oil rose, while natural gas declined. Emerging markets outperformed developed peers, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index increasing 5.5% for the month.

Middle East tensions escalate, sending oil prices higher. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran after weeks of rising tensions. U.S. officials said the goal was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and reduce security threats. The strikes targeted military and nuclear-related sites, and Iran responded with missile attacks on Israeli and U.S. positions in the region. The escalation increased the risk of a broader regional conflict and added uncertainty to global energy markets. Oil prices moved higher in early trading on concerns about possible supply disruptions, though the lasting impact will depend on how the situation develops.

Artificial intelligence (AI) thought exercise sends ripples through equity markets. A report from Citrini Research sparked a sell-off in several widely held stocks after outlining a hypothetical scenario in which AI could displace a significant number of jobs. Although framed as a thought exercise rather than a forecast, the report raised concerns about longer-term economic risks linked to rapid AI adoption. Shares of technology, payments, and software companies experienced heightened volatility as investors reassessed future earnings potential and growth assumptions, amid uncertainty about how AI may reshape business models.

Scotia Trinidad and Tobago Growth Fund (TTD)

- Capital Appreciation

- Medium to High Risk