Issue No. 66

The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market completed its first month of trading in 2026 with mixed results. The Composite Index (TTCOMP), ended January with an overall total return of 0.19%, driven by the index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks which gained 1.24%, however, the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) detracted, posting a decline of 2.98%.

The main detractor was ANSA Merchant Bank Limited (AMBL), which fell 15.02%, followed by A.S Brydens & Sons Holdings Limited (ASBH), falling 11.58% over the month. The month’s top gainers were Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) and National Enterprises Limited (NEL) with monthly gains of 111.74% and 26.04% respectively. Trading activity was dominated by TTNGL, which was the volume leader, followed by NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG). During the month, shareholders of TTNGL were given some hope of a turnaround in the company’s ability to return value, with the announcement of a proposed reduction in it’s stated capital by $2.2 billion, to enable the company to satisfy the solvency test by the Companies Acts to issue dividends. This action is subject to shareholders’ approval of a special resolution.   

Geopolitical concerns escalated early in 2026, with the United States’ capture of the Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, and the potential significant consequences on the reignition of T&T’s energy sector. Meanwhile, positive signs developed over the month within the energy sector with Touchstone Exploration reporting 'encouraging' results from its Carapal Ridge 3 (CR-3) development well on the Central Block and ExxonMobil commencing its 3D seismic survey across the deepwater TTUD-1 block.  

On the macro-economic front, the inflation rate disclosed by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) for December 2025, which measures the percentage change in the All-Items Index for the month of December 2025 over December 2024, remained largely subdued at 0.4%, easing from 0.5% in the corresponding period in 2024.

During the month, The Government of Trinidad and Tobago also tapped the International Capital Markets raising US$1 billion through the issuance of a new ten-year international bond, set to mature in January 2036. The bond carries a coupon rate of 6.5%, with interest payable semi-annually, and was sold at a discount to face value. The bond, denominated in US dollars, is unsecured and backed by the Government's general ability to meet its debt obligations.

Within the local interest rate environment, the yield curve flattened marginally month over month. Notably, the 3-month rate inched up by 11 basis points, crossing the 3% level as of the end of January 2026, while Commercial Banks closed the month with an excess reserve of $3.08 Billion versus $4.20 Billion a month earlier.

Our team’s approach to local equity and fixed income investing continues to be guided by active management, robust fundamental research and seeking attractive opportunities with a long-term view for the benefit of unitholders. 

International Equity markets were broadly higher for the month, though returns varied across individual markets.  In the United States (U.S.), the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, with Energy  and Materials driving gains. U.S. bonds increased 0.1% with U.S. Fereral Reserve opting to leave it’s key policy rates unchanged during their January 2026 meeting. Emerging markets outperformed, led by strong gains in South Korea, as investors sought alternatives to U.S. equities and technology shares benefited from continued demand tied to artificial intelligence (AI).

During the month, commodity markets were rocked by volatility, with prices across major commodities experiencing large daily and weekly price swings. Natural gas experienced the largest swing, rising 39.1% for the month as colder weather forecasts pushed demand higher. Copper gained 4.3%, supported by stronger global demand forecasts and potential supply disruptions. Precious metals experienced a sharp selloff following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on January 30, with gold falling more than 9% in one day, its largest single-day drop since 1983 and silver tumbling more than 31%, its worst ever daily loss.

The first month of has brought no shortage of big stories and market headlines, but international markets have kept moving steadily, powered by strong corporate earnings. As fourth-quarter 2025 company results continue to be released, the S&P 500 is on track for its tenth straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth, highlighting the durability of this profit cycle despite higher costs and ongoing uncertainty. Profitability remains supported by disciplined cost control and productivity gains from artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence is no longer just a market story, it’s driving operational advantages and businesses more competitive. And so, Information Technology remains the powerhouse of earnings growth and innovation… but concentration risk is still elevated, with now roughly 40% of the S&P 500 tied to just ten companies.

Scotia Canadian Equity Fund (USD)

- Capital Appreciation

- Medium to High Risk