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Issue No. 65
Markets Wrap
Local Markets
The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market finished off the last month of 2025 on a positive note, with a gain recorded on the Composite Index (TTCOMP), which advanced 0.42%. The index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks gained 0.86%, however, the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) dipped 0.85%.
The main detractor was Cinemaone Limited (CINE1), which fell 14.91%, followed by Guardian Media Limited (GML), which declined 11.43% over the month. The month’s top gainers were Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation Limited (PLD) and National Enterprises Limited (NEL) with monthly gains of 15.00% and 12.94% respectively. Trading activity was dominated by Massy Holdings Ltd (MASSY), which was the volume leader, followed by Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (TTNGL).
The local economic and financial landscape continues to evolve amid shifting leadership changes amongst state entities, falling gas production, tightening availability of foreign exchange and escalating geopolitical risks. During the month, Moody’s ratings agency affirmed the T&T Government’s long term local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured ratings at Ba2. However, the agency adjusted their outlook to negative to reflect what it views as short-term downside risks. The Ministry of Finance disclosed that Moody’s affirmation of Trinidad & Tobago’s Ba2 rating was predicated on the robust credit strengths of our country, including the existence of substantial fiscal buffers, as well as the expectation of positive oil and gas production developments by 2027. The outlook was changed to negative based on the decline in the Central Bank’s liquid foreign exchange reserves.
The inflation rate disclosed for November 2025, which measures the percentage change in the All-Items Index for the month of November 2025 over November 2024, was 0.5%. This represents an increase from 0.4% for the previous period (October 2025/October 2024), the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said in its Consumer Price Index statement.
Considering the local and international financial and economic implications, during their December 2025 meeting, The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago maintained its policy repo rate at 3.5%, citing well-contained inflation, improving liquidity conditions, and lingering weakness in the non-energy sector. Within its announcement, the Bank said the decision was taken against a backdrop of modest global economic prospects and tentative domestic growth.
Within the local interest rate environment, the yield curve shifted up marginally month over month, with increases pronounced throughout the 2 to 5 years maturities.
Our team’s approach to local equity and fixed income investing continues to be guided by active management and robust fundamental research with a long-term view of select investments.
International Markets
Markets finished the month with varied performance, while returns for 2025 reflected stronger momentum across most asset classes. Global equities rose 1.04% for the month and posted a 22.34% gain for the year, compared with United States (U.S.) equities, which increased 0.06% in the month and 17.88% over the year. Fixed income markets globally were mixed, reflecting diverging monetary policy paths between central banks. U.S. bonds fell 0.15%, though delivered positive annual returns of 7.30% as yields dipped over 2025. Commodity performance was mixed, as gold gained for the month, while oil and natural gas declined.
During the month, the United States Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, citing moderate economic growth, slowing job gains, and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate, in its December 10 policy decision. Policymakers noted that inflation remained somewhat elevated after increasing earlier in the year, while downside risks to employment had grown in recent months. The Committee emphasized that future policy adjustments would remain data dependent, guided by incoming economic information and the evolving balance of risks.
Index |
YTD ∆ |
1Yr % ∆ |
S&P 500 |
16.39% |
16.39% |
MSCI ACWI |
20.60% |
20.60% |
ALL T&T |
-13.25% |
-13.25% |
T&T Composite |
-11.81% |
-11.81% |
Rates |
Current |
31-Dec-24 |
GORTT 3M |
2.90% |
2.31% |
GORTT 10Yr |
5.91% |
5.55% |
US 3M |
3.67% |
4.37% |
US 10Yr |
4.18% |
4.58% |
Commodities |
Current |
YTD % ∆ |
Oil (WTI) |
$57.42 |
-19.94% |
Nat Gas (HH) |
$3.69 |
1.46% |
Gold |
$4,319.37 |
64.59% |
|
|
|
*As of December 31st 2025. |
||
Market Highlights
U.S. job growth slows to weakest pace since 2003 outside recession
U.S. jobs increased by 50,000 in December, below expectations, while gains over the previous two months were revised lower by a cumulative 76,000. This brought total jobs added in 2025 to 584,000 over the year, down from the 2 million increase reported in 2024 and marking 2025 as the worst year for job creation outside of a recession since 2003. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% in the prior month, driven by marginal growth in the U.S. labour force.
Investment Buzz
Artificial intelligence (AI) – technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human learning, problem-solving, comprehension and creativity by combining data, algorithms, and computing power.
Fund of the month
Scotia Global Equity Fund (USD)
- Capital Appreciation
- Medium to High Risk
Historical Returns (December 2025)
3- Month |
1-Year |
10-Year (Annualized) |
3.93% |
22.32% |
6.72% |
Mutual Funds
USD Funds
TTD Funds
General Disclosures:
This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.
The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.