Issue No. 64

During November 2025, there was a decline in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market. The Composite Index (TTCOMP), fell 1.41%, the index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks declined 1.89%, while the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) held firm with a gain of 0.07%.

The main detractor was The West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO), which fell 23.89%, followed by One Caribbean Media Limited (OCM) declining 18.59% over the month. The month’s top gainers were Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) and NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) with monthly gains of 16.08% and 10.29% respectively. Trading activity was dominated by Massy Holdings Ltd (MASSY), which was the volume leader, followed by NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG).

The local economic and financial landscape continues to evolve with the new Government Administration implementing their mandates throughout various sectors. Falling gas production and the tightening of the availability of foreign exchange has subdued and created uncertainty for the outlook of business and economic activity. However, some macro-economic signals remain positive. Notably, the Central Statistical Office disclosed that the inflation rate as of October 2025 was 0.4%. This reflected the percentage change in consumer prices in October 2025 compared to October 2024. This metric was down from the 1.0% inflation rate recorded in September 2025.

Some promising signs emerged within the energy sector, with the return of Exxon Mobil to Trinidad and Tobago’s deepwater blocks. During the month, bp Trinidad and Tobago announced that it safely completed the Cypre seven-well drilling programme following the delivery of first gas seven months ago. At peak, Cypre is projected to deliver approximately 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (approximately 250 million standard cubic feet of gas a day).

Regarding Trade, The Ministry of Foreign and Caricom Affairs announced that on November 14, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order to modify the scope of reciprocal tariffs under the U.S. tariff regime. According to the Ministry’s release, T&T will benefit from zero reciprocal tariffs on several qualifying agricultural exports, particularly important nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers destined for the United States market.

Within the local interest rate environment, the yield curve shifted up month over month, with a pronounced increase on the short-end of the curve, with the 3-month T&T Treasury yield ending the month up 24 basis points to 2.90%.

Geopolitical tensions continued to escalate significantly within the region as the United States (US) accumulated a military presence within the region to address drug trafficking emanating from South America. These developments present further uncertainty surrounding the commencement of various cross-border energy initiatives that are carded to provide support to the subdued gas production in Trinidad and Tobago. While the events may be weighing on local investor sentiment, this may present an opportunity to take advantage of attractively priced high-quality local investments. Our team’s approach to local investing is guided by active management and robust fundamental research with a long-term view of select investments. 

International equity markets posted gains in November, despite heighted volatility. The United States (U.S.) S&P 500 gained 0.25% total return, with Health Care, Communication Services, and Materials leading sector performance. In fixed income, United States (U.S.) bonds increased 0.62% as yields moved lower after delayed data pointed to softer economic momentum. Commodities were mixed, with gold up 5.59%, natural gas up 11.01%, and crude oil down 3.38%. Emerging markets weakened, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declining 2.39% due to drops in South Korea and China and investors shifting toward lower-risk assets.

As the year wraps up and the holiday spirit sets in, global markets thus far have delivered another impressive year of resilience and performance for patient investors. The S&P 500 has set over 25 record highs this year, while in Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite shattered 45 all-time records – passing the 30,000 level for the first time and on track for one of its strongest years since 2009. Meanwhile, emerging markets outperformed, led by booming Asian technology and semiconductor demand. Fixed income also performed well, with rate cuts boosting U.S. bonds, and tight high yield spreads were supported by stronger corporate balance sheets. Three major factors continued to drive the rally of late: resilient consumer spending, strong earnings beating analyst estimates, and supportive monetary policy.

Fund of the Month

Scotia US Dollar Bond Fund (TTD)

- Capital Appreciation

- Low to Medium Risk