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Issue No. 63
Markets Wrap
Local Markets
During October 2025, there was a broad-base decline in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market. The Composite Index (TTCOMP), fell 3.03%, the index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks declined 2.58%, while the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) dipped 1.21%.
The main detractor was One Caribbean Media Limited (OCM), which fell 20.00%, followed by A.S. Bryden & Sons Holdings Limited (ASBH) declining 17.43% over the month. The month’s top gainers were Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) and Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) with monthly gains of 17.65% and 10.04% respectively. Trading activity was dominated by NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG), which was the volume leader, followed by CIBC Caribbean Bank Limited (CIBC).
On October 6th 2025, newly installed Finance Minister, Davendranath Tancoo delivered his Budget statement for the 2025/2026 fiscal year. He announced planned expenditure of $59.232 billion against total revenue projections of $55.367 billion. The deficit for Fiscal Year 2026 is therefore projected to be an estimated 2.17% of Gross Domestic Product. Some notable provisions within the budget that may shape the outlook for the local market included the proposed introduction of an asset levy on Financial Institutions, an increase in National Insurance contributions, together with a gradual increase in the retirement age, an electricity surcharge on industrial and commercial consumption and increased in duties on alcohol and tobacco.
During the month, geopolitical tensions also continued to rise within the region as the United States (US) accumulated a military presence within the region to address drug trafficking emanating from South America. This development presents further uncertainty surrounding the commencement of various cross-border energy initiatives that are carded to provide support to the falling gas production in Trinidad and Tobago. While the events may be weighing on local investor sentiment, this presents an opportunity to take advantage of attractively priced high-quality local investments. Our team’s approach to local investing is guided by active management and robust fundamental research with a long-term view of select investments.
International Markets
International Equity markets advanced in October 2025, supported by resilient corporate earnings, central bank rate cuts, robust Artificial Intelligence (AI) interest by investors and easing trade tensions between the US and China. The S&P 500 Index rose 2.27% led by Information Technology and Health Care sectors. The Information Technology sector was driven gains in the ‘Magnificient Seven’ group of stock, as new partnerships and dealmaking within AI space accelerated. The market’s main laggards were the Materials and Financials Sectors.
According to FactSet, about 64% of S&P 500 companies had reported third-quarter results by late October. Thus far, 83% have exceeded profit forecasts, though the size of the surprises was smaller than usual. Of the eleven sectors, ten sectors posted year-over-year revenue gains—led by Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services with Energy the only sector to record a decline. During the month, a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered an easing in trade tensions between the two nations.
Within Fixed Income, United States bonds also strengthened, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gaining 0.62%, as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy rates by 0.25 percentage points in October to support growth and the softening labour market. This followed a similar rate reduction during the prior month. October 1st 2025 also marked the commencement of a shutdown of the United States government triggered by the lack of agreement on the US government’s funding legislation for the forthcoming fiscal year. Notably, there was no material adverse reaction by stock market investors as traders over the month. The impact of an extended shutdown on the labor market, economic growth and the provision of data to key decision makers, is a risk that investors are monitoring.
Commodities delivered mixed results—gold and natural gas advanced while oil prices fell over the month. Emerging markets outperformed with the MSCI Emerging Market index up 4.19%, bolstered by a tech rally that fueled equity gains in South Korea.
Index |
YTD ∆ |
1Yr % ∆ |
S&P 500 |
16.30% |
19.40% |
MSCI ACWI |
19.60% |
20.48% |
ALL T&T |
-12.33% |
-11.04% |
T&T Composite |
-10.93% |
-7.73% |
Rates |
Current |
31-Dec-24 |
GORTT 3M |
2.66% |
2.31% |
GORTT 10Yr |
5.85% |
5.55% |
US 3M |
3.89% |
4.37% |
US 10Yr |
4.11% |
4.58% |
Commodities |
Current |
YTD % ∆ |
Oil (WTI) |
$60.98 |
-14.97% |
Nat Gas (HH) |
$4.12 |
13.52% |
Gold |
$4,002.92 |
52.53% |
|
|
|
*As of October 31st 2025. |
||
Market Highlights
On October 1, 2025, the United States government officially entered a shutdown after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach an agreement on federal budget legislation. As a result, several nonessential federal agencies have furloughed workers and are halting services until funding is restored. This marks the first U.S. government shutdown in nearly seven years.
Investment Buzz
The S&P 500 index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of approximately 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. This globally tracked index provides a broad measure of the U.S. stock market. It is a market-capitalization-weighted index, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance. The index is often used as a benchmark for investment portfolios globally and acts as a leading indicator of overall economic health in the U.S.
Fund of the Month
Scotia Trinidad and Tobago Growth and Income Fund (TTD)
- Capital Appreciation
- Medium to High Risk
Historical Returns (October 2025)
3- Month |
1-Year |
10-Year (Annualized) |
1.89% |
6.01% |
2.93% |
Mutual Funds
USD Funds
TTD Funds
General Disclosures:
General Disclosures:
This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.
The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.