Issue No. 62

During September 2025, the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market, gauged by the Composite Index (TTCOMP), fell 1.90%. The index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks declined 0.74%, while the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) dipped 5.33%.

The largest detractor was Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL), which fell 22.03%, followed by Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) declining 15.65% over the month. The month’s top gainers were newcomers; A.S. Bryden & Sons Holdings Limited (ASBH) and Medcorp Limited (MED) with monthly gains of 109.57% and 6.12% respectively. Trading activity was dominated by NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG), which was the volume leader, followed by Massy Holdings Ltd (MASSY).

The local economy’s prospects have been clouded by falling energy production, trade policy uncertainty from United States, escalating geopolitical risks within the region and the potential further impact on the already limited supply of foreign exchange locally. During the month, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Trinidad and Tobago’s investment grade credit rating of BBB-, however, revised the country’s outlook from stable to negative. The agency noted the erosion of fiscal and external buffers over many years and hinted at the possibility of a downgrade if meaningful and timely steps are not taken to strengthen the sustainability of public finances, ensure balanced economic growth, and maintain a strong external profile.  We note that recent developments surrounding potential deep-water energy exploration activity could provide a boost to the outlook over the medium term to longer term if successful. The new Government Administration’s Budget for the Fiscal year 2025/2026 will also be pivotal in the evolution of the local economic outlook. Our team’s approach to local investing is guided by active management and robust fundamental research with a long-term view of select local investments.

The Trinidad and Tobago fixed income market continues to be characterized by a generally upward slope, with a kinked segment displaying elevated rates over the 1-to-3-year term segments. Over the month of September 2025, the Trinidad and Tobago Treasury yield curve shifted marginally upward over all time-periods, with the most notable movement being a 20-basis point increase in the 1-year yield. Yields have generally increased from a year ago, with the increases being pronounced on the shorter end of the curve.

International Equity and bond markets advanced in September 2025, buoyed by easing monetary policy with the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) commencing interest rate cuts after a 9 month pause. However, momentum faded late in the month as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that persistent inflation, stronger growth, and resilient employment created uncertainty around future policy. Investor sentiment was also shaken by the looming United States (U.S.) government shutdown, which began October 1. S&P 500 index returned 3.65%, while Global Equities gauged by the MSCI ACWI Index added 3.62%. United States Bonds gained 1.09% while commodities were mixed, with gold and natural gas up 11.92% and 10.21% respectively, while WTI crude oil was down 2.56%. Emerging markets outperformed on improving U.S.-China trade talks.

September’s economic releases added uncertainty to the U.S. monetary policy path, as a mix of persistent inflation, resilient labor markets, and stronger growth clouded the outlook for future rate decisions. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected, signaling continued labor market strength, while the final estimate confirmed U.S. Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annualized pace of 3.8% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.6% contraction in Q1. Upward revisions to consumer and business spending, combined with a decline in imports boosting net trade, reinforced the economy’s resilience, complicating the Fed’s efforts to balance growth and inflation pressures.

Fund of the Month

Scotia Canadian Equity Fund (USD)

- Capital Appreciation

- Medium to High Risk