Issue No. 59

During June 2025, the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market, gauged by the Composite Index (TTCOMP), recorded an overall decline of 1.79%. The index of All T&T (TTALL) stocks declined 1.97%, while the Cross-Listed Index (TTCROSS) dipped 1.23%.

The largest detractor was JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL), which fell 6.09%, followed by Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited (SBTT) declining 5.89% over the month. The month’s top gainers were L.J. Williams Limited “B” (LJWB) and Prestige Holdings Limited (PHL) with monthly gains of 25% and 24.42% respectively. Trading activity on the exchange saw 27 securities being traded during the month, of which 8 stocks advanced, 16 declined and 3 held firm. Trading activity was dominated by Massy Holdings Ltd (MASSY), which was the volume leader, followed by Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL).

Locally, the macroeconomic outlook remains muted, as natural gas production is seemly on a downward trajectory and the consequential foreign exchange challenges continue to weigh on the companies. On the bright side, the local stock market has experienced some Initial Public Offering (IPO) and Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity which were met with robust investor appetite. We view these developments as positive signs and reinforces the opportunity the local stock market offers to investors. Our team’s approach to local equity investing is guided by fundamental research with a long-term view of the resilience and potential of select local equities.

The local fixed income market continued to be characterized by elevated rates over the 1-to-3-year term segments. Over the month of June 2025, the Trinidad and Tobago yield curve generally moved upward with increases more pronounced along the 11-to-14-year time-horizons. Yields have generally increased from a year ago, with the increases being pronounced on the shorter end of the curve.

In June, International equity markets posted solid gains across regions, with the MSCI All Country World Index up 4.53% and the S&P 500 advancing 5.08% in USD terms. In the United States, the top-performing sectors were Information Technology (+9.8%), Communication Services (+7.3%), and Energy (+4.8%). Markets experienced another month of volatility. On June 13,  Israel launched a military strike on Iran, targeting nuclear infrastructure and senior military leadership.. On June 22, the United States entered the conflict with its own strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that was followed by immediate retaliation from Iran, who launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar. Global markets reacted with oil prices rising and ending the month up 8.9% as investors priced in potential supply disruptions. By June 24, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel took effect, easing tensions. Commodities produced positive results in June 2025, as Gold appreciated 0.4% to $3,303.14 while WTI Crude prices and natural gas prices rose 7.1% and 0.3% respectively on hightened geopolitical tensions.

U.S. bonds finished the month with modest gains, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recorded a gain of 1.54% as softer inflation readings boosted expectations for rate cuts. Emerging markets outperformed, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gaining 6.12% in USD terms amid improved sentiment tied to a tentative U.S.–China trade agreement.

While market fundamentals remain strong, US trade policy has weakened market sentiment causing uncertainty and volatility to rise materially. The path markets will take is highly dependent on the direction of trade policy developments. Overall, yields remain attractive from both income and potential capital appreciation perspectives.

Fund of the Month

Scotia Trinidad and Tobago Growth and Income Fund (TTD)

- Capital Appreciation

- Medium to high Risk