Issue No. 57

The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market, gauged by the Composite Index (TTCOMP), remained relatively flat registering an overall total return of 0.06% during April 2025. The index of All T&T stocks advanced 0.74%, however the Cross-Listed Index slipped 1.99%.

The largest detractor was Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL), which fell 20.60%, followed by One Caribbean Media Limited (OCM) declining 12.12% over the month. The month’s top gainers were Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation Limited (PLD) and Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL) with monthly gains of 25.71% and 15.64% respectively. Trading activity on the TTCOMP saw 26 securities being traded during April, of which 11 stocks advanced, 14 declined and 1 held firm. Trading activity was dominated by MASSY Holdings Ltd (MASSY), which was the volume leader, followed by NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG).

We maintain our cautiously optimistic view of a gradual turnaround in the local equity market, while noting that investor confidence has been fragile amid significant international trade and geopolitical uncertainty and now the appointment of a new Government Administration locally. Given the uncertainty and accompanying volatility that may persist in the short-term, equity investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term view on their investment approach and goals. 

Following an announcement of a tax on imports from all countries of 10% and aggressive ‘recriprocal’ tariffs on select countries by the US, US equities, gauged by the S&P 500 index, experienced its worst two-day performance since the pandemic, as market participants priced in an international economic downturn as an impending derivative of tariffs. However, just one week after, the US President announced a 90-day pause on the previously announced ‘reciprocal’ tariffs leaving some room for optimism and negotiations by trading counterparts. Notably, China was excluded from the announced pause, as a tit-for-tat retaliation ensued and U.S.-China trade tensions remained elevated throughout the month. Given the headwinds, consumer confidence in the United States slumped to its lowest point in 5 years. On an economic front, during April, the International Monetary Fund downgraded the global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025, down from their January 2025 expectation of 3.3% growth. 

The S&P 500 Index provided a total return of -0.60% for April 2025, while the MSCI All Country World Index, a gauge for global stocks posted a positive +0.98% total return as investors rotated into other global equity markets excluding the United States.

Commodities produced mixed results in April 2025, as Gold continued to climb and rose 6.2% to $3,310.76 while WTI Crude prices and natural gas prices plummeted 18.6% and 19.3% respectively on the waivering outlook for economic growth.

The local fixed income market continued to be characterized by a kinked yield curve with elevated rates on the 1-to-3-year time horizon. Over the month of April 2025, the Trinidad and Tobago yield curve generally moved up along the belly of the curve, with rates ticking down marginally within the 90-day and 180-day time-horizons. Yields have generally increased from a year ago, with the increases being pronounced on the shorter end of the curve.

International Fixed Income markets experienced significant volatility as concerns related to the impositon of tariffs and the impact on inflation and economic growth weighed on business, consumer and investor sentiment. United States Treasuries whipsawed during the period between ‘libaration day’ and the announcement of a 90-day pause on recriprocal tariffs. However, the pause lead a Bond market recovery, with Bloomberg United States Aggregate Bond Index ending relatively flat with a return of +0.39% for the month while the Global Investment Grade market, measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, returned +2.94%.

United States inflation rate for March 2025 declined, printing below expectations at 2.4% year over year. Despite the potential of inflation reaccelerating over the next few months with the announcement of tariffs in the US, markets are still pricing policy rate cuts in the United States by the end of the year.

The 10-year U.S. treasury yield settled at 4.17% and the 2-year yield fell to 3.60% as of the end of April 2025. We continue to hightlight the importance that high-quality fixed income funds or instruments can plays in a well-diversitifed portfolio, providing stability and a reliable income component during times of volatility and risk-off sentiment. 

Fund of the Month

Scotia Global Equity Fund

- Capital Appreciation

- Medium to high Risk