Issue No. 56

The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market, gauged by the Composite Index (TTCOMP), recorded an overall decline of 1.39% during March 2025. Similarly, the Cross-Listed Index slipped 2.36%, however, the All T&T index advanced 1.68%.

The largest detractor was ANSA McAL Limited (AMCL), which fell 13.79%, followed by Guardian Media Limited (GML) declining 13.51% over the month. The month’s top gainers were JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) and L.J. Williams Limited “B” (LJWB) with monthly gains of 12.96% and 11.11% respectively. Trading activity on the TTCOMP saw 29 securities being traded during March, of which 11 stocks advanced, 16 declined and 2 held firm. Trading activity was dominated by MASSY Holdings Ltd (MASSY), which was the volume leader, followed by JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL).

We maintain our cautiously optimistic view of a gradual turnaround in the local equity market. We note that investor confidence may be fragile and uncertain amid upcoming local general elections, combined with significant international trade and geopolitical developments which may slow the trajectory of global economic growth. Given the uncertainty and accompanying volatility that may persist in the short-term, investors are advised to remain focused on their long-term investment goals. This involves adopting a value-oriented and diversified approach to investing. Our teams approach equity investing by thorough research and  investing in stocks with strong fundamentals, robust management with solid track records that are designed to weather market volatility and achieve long term objectives.

International stock markets continued to experience volatility during the month of March 2025. Policy uncertainty surrounding the United States Government’s impending trade policies, immigration policies, persistent inflation, wavering consumer confidence and the potential impact on the outlook for economic growth kept the equity market returns subdued for the month. The S&P 500 Index provided a total return of -5.63% for March 2025, while the MSCI All Country World Index, a gauge for global stocks returned -3.90%. From a sector perspective, within the S&P 500, last year’s high-flying Technology sector led the monthly decline, down 8.2% during the month, followed by the Consumer Discretionary sector which was down 7.5%. While the best performing sectors were the Energy and Utilities sectors returning 2.3% and 1.2% respectively during March 2025. Overall, 6 sectors advanced over the month with 5 sectors detracting.

An annual inflation rate of 2.8% was reported in the United States (U.S) for February 2025, which came in less than expected, however, still stubbornly above the United States Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

Broadly, commodities produced mixed results in March 2025. Gold rose 9.30% to $3,123.57 while WTI Crude prices gained 2.46%, and natural gas prices gained 5.12%.

The local fixed income market continued to be characterized by rising interest rates. Trinidad and Tobago yield curve movements for February 2025 compared with the month prior were pronounced on the 1-year time horizon, which saw an increase to 4.25%, from 3.94% in January 2025. We highlight that yields have generally increased from a year ago, with the increases being concentrated on the shorter end of the curve.

International Fixed Income markets delivered positive albeit modest returns during March 2025 as bond markets echoed investor sentiment. Given elevated inflationary pressures and the uncertainty of the impact of Fiscal policy initiatives, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at the 4.25% - 4.50% range during its March meeting. Against this backdrop, the U.S. Fixed Income market gauged, by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index provided a 0.04% total return to investors, while the Global Investment Grade market, measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, returned 0.62%. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield settled at 4.23% and the 2-year yield fell to 3.89% as of the end of March 2025. We continue to hightlight the importance that high-quality fixed income funds or instruments can plays in a well-diversitifed portfolio, providing stability and a reliable income component during times of risk-off sentiment. 

Fund of the Month

Scotia US Dollar Bond Fund

- Capital Appreciation

- Low to Medium Risk