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Issue No. 53
Markets Wrap
Local Equities
For the 2nd consecutive month, the local equity market posted gains, ending 2024 at -11.60%. In December, the T&T Composite Index advanced 1.26%, driven by growth in the TT Cross listed Index of 1.95% and the All T&T index of 1.05%.
The All T&T Index climbed as West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) and Guardian Holdings Limited (GHL) added gains of 10.7% and 8.7% respectively. The TT Cross listed index notched higher as NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) returned 3.9% and GraceKennedy Limited (GKC) rose 3.1%. Trading activity on the TT Composite Index was derived from 29 securities being traded of which 20 stocks advanced, 5 declined and 4 held firm. December saw heightened trading activity amongst MASSY Holdings Ltd (MASSY) and NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG).
In 2024, market activity remained subdued, reflecting low investor confidence as the local economy continues to grapple with sluggish GDP growth, limited diversification and increasing forex constraints. By focusing on value investing and adopting a long-term perspective, investors can capitalize on market inefficiencies by identifying undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals while able to weather market volatility.
International Equities
In December, US stocks slide, erasing some of the gains posted in November, following the big post-election rally. The S&P 500 was down 2.5% in December, bringing its 2024 return to 23.3% and its two-year gain to 53.2%. All sectors declined over the month. Materials and Energy were the laggards, falling 10.7% and 9.2% respectively.
Economic indicators ended the year strong. Unemployment remained low, strong GDP, retail sales increased while inflation inched closer to the 2% inflation target. Consumer sentiment increased to 74 in December, the highest level since April 2024, compared to 71.8 in November.
The US equity market will likely continue to outperform but continue to trade at high valuations. With growing optimism for US equities in 2025, strategists anticipate the S&P 500’s 2025 close to average approximately 6,614, 12.5% above the 2024 close of 5,881.63. While macroeconomic data and corporate earnings will remain the key focus in 2025, market participants will closely monitor the FED’s interest rate trajectory and any geopolitical risks.
Energy prices were higher month on month with WTI Crude prices increasing from $68.00 to $71.72 at the end of December. Gold prices fell marginally to US$2,641.00 while natural gas prices rose 8.02% month on month to $3.633, the highest recorded price since October 2023.
Index |
YTD ∆ |
1Yr % ∆ |
S&P 500 |
23.31% |
23.31% |
MSCI ACWI |
15.73% |
15.73% |
ALL T&T |
-12.74% |
-12.74% |
T&T Composite |
-11.60% |
-11.60% |
Rates |
Current |
31-Dec-23 |
GORTT 3M |
2.25% |
1.05% |
GORTT 10Yr |
5.57% |
5.19% |
US 3M |
4.31% |
5.33% |
US 10Yr |
4.57% |
3.87% |
Commodities |
Current |
YTD % ∆ |
Oil (WTI) |
$71.72 |
0.10% |
Nat Gas (HH) |
$3.633 |
44.51% |
Gold |
$2,641.00 |
27.47% |
Local Fixed Income
Yields continued its upward trajectory along the November GORTT curve, with significant jumps recorded on the 2 year and 13-year points. The 2-year rate moved 34 basis point to 4.30% while the 13-year rate climbed 28-basis point climbed to 6.17%.
Real GDP improved in the first quarter of 2024, driven by continued growth in non-energy sector activity along with a marginal expansion in the energy sector, according to the CSO. Constraints with natural gas production will likely continue to impact energy sector growth, until the anticipated energy projects come onstream. The outlook for the non-energy sector is expected to remain resilient and positive.
While the local fixed income market has been very active in 2024, particularly with Government borrowing, 2025 is expected to see further issuances as we draw nearer to local elections.
International Fixed Income
In December, the FED delivered a hawkish rate cut, signalling a further 50 basis points rate reduction in 2025, down from the previously expected 100 basis points decline. This decision pushed the 10-year treasury yields to 4.58% on December from 4.18% in November while the 2-year yield rose to 4.25%, up 1.7% month on month. The Global Investment Grade market, measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, fell -2.15% while the Investment Grade corporate spreads narrowed further from 1.08% to 1.03% in December, the smallest spread over the last 10 years. The US High yield bond market returned -0.43% during the month.
Market Highlights
As at December 16, 2024, Moody’s affirmed Trinidad and Tobago’s credit rating at Ba2 with a stable outlook. This rating reflects its return to growth driven by the non-energy sector while fiscal risks from high debt are offset by cash buffers and the Heritage and Stabilization Fund, amounting to more than 40% of GDP in fiscal 2024 (ending in Sept 2024).
Investment Buzz
Return on Assets (ROA) is a profitability ratio that measures how efficiently a company uses its total assets to generate net income. A higher ROA indicates better management of resources and greater productivity in generating returns.
Fund of the Month
Scotia Money Market Fund (USD$)
- Liquidity, Capital Preservation
- Low Risk
- Quarterly distributions on select share classes
Historical Returns (December 2024)
YTD |
1-Year |
2-Year |
4.81% |
3.42% |
2.11% |
Mutual Funds
USD Funds
TTD Funds
Need more information regarding our Investment Solutions?
Speak with one of our investment specialists.
Estelle Narine
777-0487
estelle.narine@scotiabank.com
Candice De Sormeaux
777-0732
candice.desormeaux@scotiabank.com
Adesha Gonzales
486-0581
adesha.gonzales@scotiabank.com
General Disclosures:
General Disclosures:
This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.
The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.