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Issue No. 45
Markets Wrap
Local Equities
April was a challenging month for local equites which led to all indices posting declines for the first time since January 2024. The TT Composite Index tumbled -1.25%, driven by the negative growth recorded by the TT Cross Listed Index of -4.59% and All T&T Index of -0.26%. The TT Cross listed Index fell due to the -9.38% and -7.28% dip in NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) and JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) respectively. The All T&T index notched lower as West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) returned -9.42% and Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago Limited (SBTT) dropped -5.58%. Trading activity on the TT Composite Index was derived from 26 securities being traded of which 8 stocks advanced, 16 declined and 2 held firm.
During the month, Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) released its six months performance ended March 2024. RFHL’s EPS jumped 27.3% from $4.83 to $6.15 during the period boosted by enhanced performances across all its operating countries.
The local equity market has experienced heightened price fluctuations due to the overall negative investor sentiment. Investors are reminded that equity investing yields the best results over the long term through its capital growth potential.
International Equities
The US equity market lost its momentum in April, cooling 4.16% and reversing previous all-time highs. This pullback, the worst monthly return since September 2023, came as investors digested market uncertainties of slowing growth, hotter inflation, rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted declines with the Real Estate and Information Technology sectors delivering the biggest change of -8.6% and -5.5% respectively.
US inflation, as measured by US CPI YoY Index, increased from 3.2% in February 2024 to 3.5% in March 2024. The US economy added 300,000 jobs in March, surpassing the estimated 214,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in March from 3.9%, a two-month low. The preliminary estimate of Q1 2024 GDP came in weaker than expected at 1.6%. This decelerated growth accompanied by the increase in inflation sparked investors’ doubts as to when the changes in monetary policy will occur. Consumer confidence Index fell to 97 in April, down from 103 in March, its lowest since July 2022.
In April, commodities delivered mixed performances. Crude oil prices retreated 1.49% month-on-month to US $81.93 per barrel while natural gas prices grew 12.93%. Gold prices strengthened, moving from 2,217.40 to 2,302.90 at the end of April, a new all time high. Commodity prices are anticipated to show overall stability in 2024 after years of high volatility.
Index |
YTD ∆ |
1Yr % ∆ |
S&P 500 |
5.57% |
20.78% |
MSCI ACWI |
4.07% |
15.51% |
ALL T&T |
-1.46% |
-9.67% |
T&T Composite |
-2.56% |
-10.31% |
Rates |
Current |
31-Dec-23 |
GORTT 3M |
1.37% |
1.05% |
GORTT 10Yr |
5.26% |
5.19% |
US 3M |
5.39% |
5.33% |
US 10Yr |
4.67% |
3.87% |
Commodities |
Current |
YTD % ∆ |
Oil (WTI) |
$81.93 |
14.35% |
Nat Gas (HH) |
$1.99 |
-20.80% |
Gold |
$2,302.90 |
11.15% |
Local Fixed Income
Short term treasury yields continued its climb on the GORTT curve during March, trending close to pre-Covid levels. The 3-month rate moved from 1.13% to 1.37% (Dec 2019: 1.08%) while the 1-year rate climbed from 2.03% to 2.29% (Dec 2019: 2.90%). The 10-year GORTT rate held firm at 5.26%. Inflation remained soft, as local headline inflation, measured on a year-on-year basis, stood at 0.8% in March.
The market continues to display a robust demand for fixed income securities, with corporate and government issues gaining healthy traction from the investors. Market liquidity rose to TT$4.5 billion in March, when compared TT$3.8 billion in February.
International Fixed Income
Volatility continued within the international fixed income space amid mixed economic data raising doubts that the FED would cut rates soon. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is now signalling rates would remain unchanged in June with a 43.8% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at in September.
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate index stumbled 2.52% during April and experienced its largest loss since September 2023 on the heels of climbing treasury yields. US 10-year Treasury yields closed higher during the month, moving from 4.20% on March 29th to 4.69% on April 30th. Compared to the 2-year yield of 5.04%, treasury spreads narrowed month on month by 0.35%. The US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, moved from 1.28% to close at 1.25% in April.
Market Highlights
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised global economic growth upwards to 3.2% in 2024, 0.1% from its previous estimate. The steady but slow recovery of the Global economy is anticipated to be driven by growth in advanced economies tapered by a slowdown in emerging and developing economies.
Investment Buzz
Disinflation is the temporary slowdown in the rate of price increases. It describes instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.
Fund of the Month
Scotia Global Equity Fund (USD$)
- Equity Investments
- Medium to High Risk
- Capital Appreciation
Historical Returns (April 2024)
3-Month |
6-Month |
1-Year |
5.54% |
18.86% |
13.26% |
Mutual Funds
USD Funds
TTD Funds
Need more information regarding our Investment Solutions?
Speak with one of our investment specialists.
Estelle Narine
777-0487
estelle.narine@scotiabank.com
Candice De Sormeaux
777-0732
candice.desormeaux@scotiabank.com
Adesha Gonzales
486-0581
adesha.gonzales@scotiabank.com
General Disclosures:
This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.
The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.