Issue No. 44
Markets Wrap
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Local Equities
The TT Composite Index closed the month higher driven by increases recorded by both the All T&T Index and the Cross Listed Index. The TT Cross listed Index gained 1.29% as the share price of JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) and GraceKennedy (GKC) increased by 7.86% and 2.51% respectively. The All T&T index gained 0.45% during March due to increases in Scotiabank T&T Limited (SBTT) of 1.71% and Ansa Merchant Bank Limited (AMBL) of 4.58%. Trading activity on the TT Composite Index was derived from 27 securities being traded of which 13 stocks advanced, 11 declined and 3 held firm.
During the month, Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) released its year end performance ended December 2023. The company’s EPS improved from $0.71 to $0.74 boosted by revenue growth across the Caribbean and Latin American markets.
The local equity market has experienced heightened price fluctuations and price declines in the past two years. Investors are reminded that equity investing yields the best results over the long term through its capital growth potential.
International Equities
The US equity market continued its upward trend for the fifth consecutive month resulting in a 3.1% return in the S&P 500 Index. For the quarter the S&P climbed 10.2%, marking the best start to the year in five years. The Energy sector was the top performer returning 11.8% for the month whilst Healthcare was the laggard at 2.6%. Investors remained optimistic that the economy is set for a soft landing, in which inflation eases but the economy avoids a severe downturn.
The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which provides an early indication of where the economy is heading in the near term, unexpectedly rose by 0.1% in February. Additionally, GDP was revised higher from a 3.2% gain to 3.4% based on upward revisions for personal and service consumption.
In March crude oil prices traded to US $83.17 per barrel, a month-on-month gain of 6.3%, as reports indicated OPEC production cuts are likely to continue. Meanwhile natural gas prices continued to decline due to high inventories and lower heating demand. Gold prices gained momentum moving from 2,054.70 to 2,217.40 at the end of February.
Index |
YTD ∆ |
1Yr % ∆ |
S&P 500 |
10.16% |
27.86% |
MSCI ACWI |
7.73% |
21.09% |
ALL T&T |
-1.20% |
-9.38% |
T&T Composite |
-1.32% |
-8.72% |
Rates |
Current |
31-Dec-23 |
GORTT 3M |
1.13% |
1.05% |
GORTT 10Yr |
5.26% |
5.19% |
US 3M |
5.36% |
5.33% |
US 10Yr |
4.20% |
3.87% |
Commodities |
Current |
YTD % ∆ |
Oil (WTI) |
$83.17 |
16.08% |
Nat Gas (HH) |
$1.76 |
-26.87% |
Gold |
$2,217.40 |
7.52% |
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Local Fixed Income
The latest data from the Central Statistical Office showed that real GDP increased by 3.6% during the second quarter of 2023 compared with 1.4% in the previous quarter. Yields increased across the GORTT curve during February. The 5-year rate climbed from 4.23% to 4.30% while the 10-year rate moved from 5.23% to 5.26%.
The market continues to display a robust demand for fixed income securities. Two major banks, Republic Bank Limited and First Citizens Bank Limited, are set to issue fixed rate bonds within the next two months. These issues are likely to be oversubscribed given the dearth of local corporate securities on the market. Market liquidity increased to TT$4.3 billion at the end of March, when compared TT$3.7 billion in February.
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International Fixed Income
Yields are expected to rise in the short term as strong economic data and sticky inflation cause investors to reassess the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Futures markets are showing that there has been a shift in the expected rate cuts for 2024 from 150 basis points to 70 basis points.
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate index gained 0.55% during March. The US 10-year Treasury yield moved from 4.25% on February 29th to 4.20% on March 29th. When compared to the 2-year treasury yield, spreads have expanded 0.42% during the period. The US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, moved from 1.36% to close at 1.28% in March.
Market Highlights
The International Monetary Fund issued its review of the Trinidad and Tobago economy. Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.4% in 2024 supported by the non-energy sector and new energy projects coming onstream.
Investment Buzz
Beta is a measurement of volatility where 1 is neutral, above 1 is more volatile and less than 1 is less volatile.
Fund of the Month
Scotia Canadian Equity Fund (USD$)
- Equity Investments
- Medium to High Risk
- Capital Appreciation
Historical Returns (March 2024)
1-Month |
YTD |
1-Year |
2.10% |
11.88% |
7.85% |
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Mutual Funds
USD Funds
TTD Funds
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General Disclosures:
This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.
The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.