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Issue No. 42
Markets Wrap
Local Equities
For the month ended January 2024, the TT Composite Index fell 1.82%, led by contractions in both the All T&T Index and the Cross listed Index. The All T&T index was down 1.79%, with large losses recorded by Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) of 21.41% and National Enterprises Limited (NEL) of 9.64%. The TT Cross Listed Index retreated 1.89% due to changes in GraceKennedy (GKC) of -6.39% and JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) of -4.44%. Trading activity in the TT Composite Index was derived from 24 securities being traded of which 9 stocks advanced, 14 declined and 2 held firm.
At the end of the month, First Citizens Group Financial Holdings (FCGFH) released its year end financial results. The Group’s EPS increased 5.8% from $2.91 in 2022 to $3.08 in 2023. The Group saw a 15.65% uptick in revenues fuelled by higher interest rates. In FY 2023, FCGFH paid a total of $2.00 to investors compared with $1.60 in FY 2022.
International Equities
At the start of January optimism around achieving a soft landing for the economy fueled a surge in the S&P 500 Index to new record highs. Led by the continued rally in ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks, the S&P Index posted a modest gain of 1.6% in January with five sectors advancing. The Communications sector delivered the highest MoM returns of 5.0% followed by Technology with 3.9%. The Real Estate sector was the least performing sector in January, down 4.6%.
The US economy remained resilient supported by ongoing consumer spending for both goods and services. Preliminary Q4 results showed the US GDP rose 3.3% on an annualized basis, surpassing the previously anticipated 2.0% rate. In 2023, the US economy accelerated 2.5%, marking the most robust growth recorded in the past two years.
For the fourth consecutive meeting the Fed held interest rates steady in a range of 5.25-5.50%, hinting that further improvement in inflation is needed before taking the first step to reduce the target range. The market is now estimating that the FED may begin cutting rates within the second half of 2024.
Oil prices rose to US$75.85 per barrel in January vs US$71.65 per barrel in December. Fears grew during the month as global trade disruptions through the Red Sea and escalating tensions in the Middle East dominated the space, raising concerns about a possible inflation impact. Maintaining a cautious outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $82 per barrel in 2024 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices to be slightly lower, hovering around $80 per barrel.
Index |
YTD ∆ |
1Yr % ∆ |
S&P 500 |
1.59% |
18.86% |
MSCI ACWI |
0.53% |
12.72% |
ALL T&T |
-1.79% |
-10.26% |
T&T Composite |
-1.82% |
-9.93% |
Rates |
Current |
31-Dec-23 |
GORTT 3M |
1.14% |
1.05% |
GORTT 10Yr |
5.22% |
5.19% |
US 3M |
5.36% |
5.33% |
US 10Yr |
3.91% |
3.87% |
Commodities |
Current |
YTD % ∆ |
Oil (WTI) |
$75.85 |
5.86% |
Nat Gas (HH) |
$2.100 |
-16.47% |
Gold |
$2,048.40 |
-1.13% |
Local Fixed Income
In December, short term TTD interest rates saw further increases. The 3-month rate climbed from 1.05% to 1.14% while the 1-year rate moved from 1.70% to 1.79%. We expect to see continued upward movements in short term rates as the Central Bank seeks to narrow the short-term interest rate differentials between Trinidad and Tobago and the United States.
The market continues to display a robust demand for fixed income securities. Within the local corporate bond space, there is strong market appetite for the National Investment Fund (NIF) 2 4.50% 2029 bond offering, which is expected to close February 9th, 2024. Market liquidity fell 6.5% to TT$4.6 billion in December, when compared to November, and remains well below the 2-year peak of TT$7.2 billion in August 2023.
International Fixed Income
Over the month of January, the US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, saw a marginal increase of 0.76%, to close at 1.35%. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed over the period, moving from 3.88% on December 31st to 3.99% on January 31st. This led to a tightening of the spread between the 2-year yield and 10-year yield to 0.28%. December headline CPI inflation was higher, moving 0.3% to 3.4%. Despite positive US economic data, the market remains focused on inflation levels as it is the FED’s indicator for interest rate cuts. The anticipated rate cuts in the latter of 2024 provides opportunities for bond investors as it will boost bond prices.
Market Highlights
National Investment Fund (NIF) 2 4.50% bond due 2029, is now available to retail investors, credit unions and pension plans. The bond’s issue date is February 9th, 2024, and the expected notice of allotment is on March 7th, 2024.
Investment Buzz
Growth investing refers to the strategy where investors purchase equity securities with a focus on increasing their capital. These companies are usually small or younger and deliver above average earnings when compared to the industry. Investors profit from capital gains when the security is sold.
Fund of the Month
Scotiabank US Equity Fund (USD$)
- US Equity Investments
- Medium to High Risk
- Capital Appreciation
Historical Returns (December 2023)
1-Month |
YTD |
1-Year |
1.30% |
4.38% |
10.9% |
Mutual Funds
USD Funds
TTD Funds
Need more information regarding our Investment Solutions?
Speak with one of our investment specialists.
Estelle Narine
777-0487
estelle.narine@scotiabank.com
Candice De Sormeaux
777-0732
candice.desormeaux@scotiabank.com
Adesha Gonzales
486-0581
adesha.gonzales@scotiabank.com
General Disclosures:
This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.
The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.
This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.