Issue No. 41

For the month ended December 2023,  the TT Composite Index gained 2.40%, ending months of negative returns since August 2023. The TT Composite Index was led upwards by advances recorded in both the All TT Index and TT Cross Listed Index of 1.06% and 7.19% respectively.  Major movers in the All TT Index were National Enterprises Limited (NEL) and National Flour Mills Limited (NFM), logging gains of 16.90% and 14.79% respectively. During the month, NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) delivered a double-digit increase of 19.3% in share price, which drove the TT Cross Listed Index higher.

Overall market activity slowed in December with trading volume contracting 64.8%, resulting in a 45.3% drop in trading value, when compared to December 2022. Trading activity in the TT Composite Index was derived from 24 securities being traded of which 16 stocks advanced, 7 declined and 1 held firm.

This month, FirstCaribbean International Bank Limited (FCI) issued its year end performance ended October 2023. The Group saw higher revenues of 24% and a 51.8% jump in Earnings per share, fuelled by higher interest rates and consumer demand. FCI is expected to pay a final dividend of USD $0.0125 per share on January 18^th, 2024, to shareholders of record on December 18, 2023. FCI provides an attractive avenue for investors seeking to earn USD currency.

The S&P 500 Index posted 4.42% gains in December earning a year to date return of 24.23%, making up for 2022’s decline of 19.44%. Closing off the year, December’s bright stars included the Real Estate sector with a 11.4% month on month return driven by the change in rate expectations, followed by Consumer Discretionary with a 11.0% return. The Energy sector was the least performing sector in December, with a 2.2% gain. For 2023, eight sectors advanced, with Information Technology and Communication Services sectors being the big winners, gaining 56.39% and 54.36%, respectively while the Utilities sectors delivered the worst annual return of -10.20%.

Despite challenges of inflation and elevated interest rates, the US economy remain resilient supported by ongoing consumer demand. It is anticipated that the FED may begin cutting rates within the second half of 2024, keeping in mind their 2% inflation target.

Oil prices dipped to US$71.65 per barrel in December vs US$75.96 per barrel in November, almost a 6% decline during the month. The oil market closed a challenging year with oil prices down 10.73% in 2023, despite experiencing supply cuts, conflicts in the Middle East and continued shipping attacks, all factors which usually boost oil prices. For 2024, experts have a cautious view on the industry with concerns around low oil demand and geopolitical tensions. Oil prices are predicted to hover around US$80 per barrel. 

Mirroring the pattern seen throughout 2023, November saw slightly higher short-term rates, influenced by increased government activity on the domestic capital market. This gradual upward shift in short term rates seeks to narrow the short term interest rate differentials between Trinidad and Tobago and the United States. The largest yield movements observed along the curve were in the 1-year and 30-year tenors which moved 0.04% to 1.70% and 7.64% respectively.

Market liquidity stood at TT$4.9 billion, a marginal increase of 0.97% when compared to October, however remains well below the 2-year peak of TT$7.2 billion in August 2023. Net Official reserves stood at US$6.3 billion, the equivalent of 7.8 months import cover vs US$6.4 billion or 8 months import cover in October.

The market displayed a strong demand for GORTT and GORTT agencies’ facilities during the year while the local corporate bond space remained dormant. 

The bond market rallied in December as yields moved lower, propelled by the FED shifting from a hawkish to dovish tone. The market is expecting a pivot from the aggressive rate hikes which began in March 2022 to a reduction in rates in 2024. Year over year, the US headline CPI inflation rate fell by 0.1% to 3.1%, as it nudges closer to the FED’s target of 2%.

US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, fell to its annual low of 1.34% at the end of December, after hitting its high of 1.95% in March 2023. The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased over the period, from 4.37% on November 30^th to 3.88% on December 31^st. The spread between the 2-year yield and 10-year yield remained relatively unchanged month on month at 0.35% in December.

The anticipated rate cuts provide the ideal environment for bond investors as it will boost bond prices. Investors can consider the investment play of extending duration to benefit from interest rates decline.

Fund of the Month

Scotiabank Global Equity Fund (USD$)

-Global Equity Investments

- Medium to High Risk

- Capital Appreciation