Issue No. 40

Markets Wrap

Local Equities

In November, the TT Composite Index delivered its fourth consecutive month of declines of 0.71%, led by the 1.80% contraction in the All T&T Index. Prestige Holdings Limited (PHL) and West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) were this month’s main decliners in the All TT Index, recording double digit losses of 11.2% and 10.3% respectively.  Month on month, the TT Cross Listed Index advanced 3.39%, its largest gain since July 2023, with GraceKennedy Limited (GKC) and FirstCaribbean International Bank Limited (FCI) climbing 18.6% and 2.3% respectively.

Overall market activity continued to lose steam with trading volume dropping 63% , there was also a  48% drop off in trading value in November 2023 when compared to November 2022. Trading activity in the TT Composite Index was derived from 24 securities being traded of which 10 stocks advanced, 13 declined and 1 held firm.

During the month, Massy Holdings Limited (MASSY) published its year end performance ended September 2023. The Group delivered 15% in top line growth and 21% jump in Profit from continuing operations fuelled by its acquisition strategy. MASSY is expected to pay $0.13 dividend per share to investors on December 18th, 2023 which translates to a dividend yield of 3.48% at the end of November.


International Equities

The US market reversed its three month decline in November generating a robust growth. The S&P 500 Index ended the month up 8.92%, bringing its year to date return to 18.97%. The Information Technology sector continued to be the US equity market major growth driver, leading with a 13.6% month on month return (YTD return 42.8%).  Consumer Discretionary and Financials also recorded gains, with the expectations of lower interest rates and improving financial conditions. The Energy sector was the worst performing sector in November, with only a 0.4% gain.

The US labour market is showing signs of slowing down. In October, the jobs report highlighted a slowdown in job creation and wage growth. Meanwhile, there was a rise in unemployment claims and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, suggesting the weakening of labor market conditions.

Oil prices stumbled to US$75.96 per barrel in November vs US$81.02 per barrel in October. Since the September peak of US$93.68, oil prices declined 18.9%. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+, who account for 40% of the industry, have agreed to a voluntary production cut of 900,000 barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in addition to extending the 1.3 million bpd in production cuts already in place by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Despite broad based skepticism, production cuts would decrease the market’s supply and result in higher prices.

Index

YTD ∆

1Yr % ∆

S&P 500

18.97%

11.95%

MSCI ACWI

14.70%

10.06%

ALL T&T

-10.74%

-8.68%

T&T Composite

-11.00%

-9.12%


Rates

Current

31-Dec-22

GORTT 3M

1.03%

0.50%

GORTT 10Yr

5.18%

5.18%

US 3M

5.39%

4.34%

US 10Yr

4.33%

3.87%


Commodities

Current

YTD % ∆

Oil (WTI)

$75.96

-5.36%

Nat Gas (HH)

$2.802

-37.39%

Gold

$2,038.10

11.60%


Local Fixed Income

The increase in local short-term rates persisted in October while long term rates remained relatively unchanged. The 3-month rate experienced a slight uptick from 1.0% to 1.03% while the 6-month rate rose to 1.57%. The most significant yield movement was observed in the 2-year tenor which advanced to 2.56% from 1.94%. Local headline inflation, measured on a year-on-year basis, further softened in October at 1.3% vs 3.90% in September 2023.

At the end of October, Net Official reserves remain relatively flat, standing at US$6.4 billion, the equivalent of 8.0 months import cover vs US$6.3 billion or 7.9 months import cover in September. Liquidity dipped below TT$5.0 billion in October, the second lowest recorded month for the year, after its 2-year peak of TT$7.2 billion in August.

Within the local corporate bond space, the National Investment Fund (NIF) 2 is anticipated to come to market by year end. The demand for this five-year facility will likely capture the attention of investors due to limited local fixed income options and excess market liquidity.

International Fixed Income

In the bond market, global bonds experienced some recovery as yields plunged driven by speculations that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in 2024, even before achieving its inflation goals. Year over year the US headline CPI inflation rate fell by 0.5% to 3.2% while core CPI inflation slowed to 4.0%.

After touching 5.00% in October, the 10-year US treasury yield averaged around 4.5% during November, settling at a low of 4.37% to close the month. The spread between the 2-year yield and 10-year yield widened month on month to 0.36% in November relative to 0.19% in October.

Recent trends of easing inflation and lower consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged at the December policy meeting.


Market Highlights

Rating Agency, Moody’s, revised the credit outlook of the world’s second- largest economy, China, to Negative based on alarming concerns of rising debt levels. Moody’s credit cut was based on risks associated particularly with China’s usage of fiscal stimulus to support local governments and its increasing property.

Investment Buzz   

Alpha refers to the excess return generated on an investment after adjusting for market-related volatility and fluctuations. It is a measure of outperformance and can be calculated as the return of the fund minus the benchmark’s return. A positive alpha indicates the fund has outperformed the benchmark index whereas negative alpha means underperformance.


Fund of the Month

Scotia Caribbean Income Fund (US$)

-High Quality Fixed Income Instruments

-Low to Medium Risk

- Modest Capital Appreciation, Income


Historical Returns (October 2023)

1-Month

YTD

1-Year

2.19%

 4.90%

5.71%

 

Mutual Funds

USD Funds
USD

Scotia Money Market Fund

USD

Scotia US Dollar Bond Fund

USD

Scotia Caribbean Income Fund

USD

Scotia US Equity Fund

USD

Scotia Global Equity Fund

USD

Scotia Canadian Equity Fund

TTD Funds
TTD

Scotia Trinidad & Tobago Fixed Income Fund

TTD

Scotia Trinidad & Tobago Growth and Income Fund

TTD

Scotia Trinidad & Tobago Short-Term Income Fund

Need more information regarding our Investment Solutions?

Speak with one of our investment specialists. 

Estelle Narine

777-0487
estelle.narine@scotiabank.com

Candice De Sormeaux

777-0732 
candice.desormeaux@scotiabank.com

Adesha Gonzales

486-0581
adesha.gonzales@scotiabank.com

General Disclosures: 

This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.

The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.

This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy.  This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.