Issue No. 40

In November, the TT Composite Index delivered its fourth consecutive month of declines of 0.71%, led by the 1.80% contraction in the All T&T Index. Prestige Holdings Limited (PHL) and West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) were this month’s main decliners in the All TT Index, recording double digit losses of 11.2% and 10.3% respectively.  Month on month, the TT Cross Listed Index advanced 3.39%, its largest gain since July 2023, with GraceKennedy Limited (GKC) and FirstCaribbean International Bank Limited (FCI) climbing 18.6% and 2.3% respectively.

Overall market activity continued to lose steam with trading volume dropping 63% , there was also a  48% drop off in trading value in November 2023 when compared to November 2022. Trading activity in the TT Composite Index was derived from 24 securities being traded of which 10 stocks advanced, 13 declined and 1 held firm.

During the month, Massy Holdings Limited (MASSY) published its year end performance ended September 2023. The Group delivered 15% in top line growth and 21% jump in Profit from continuing operations fuelled by its acquisition strategy. MASSY is expected to pay $0.13 dividend per share to investors on December 18^th, 2023 which translates to a dividend yield of 3.48% at the end of November.

The US market reversed its three month decline in November generating a robust growth. The S&P 500 Index ended the month up 8.92%, bringing its year to date return to 18.97%. The Information Technology sector continued to be the US equity market major growth driver, leading with a 13.6% month on month return (YTD return 42.8%).  Consumer Discretionary and Financials also recorded gains, with the expectations of lower interest rates and improving financial conditions. The Energy sector was the worst performing sector in November, with only a 0.4% gain.

The US labour market is showing signs of slowing down. In October, the jobs report highlighted a slowdown in job creation and wage growth. Meanwhile, there was a rise in unemployment claims and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, suggesting the weakening of labour market conditions.

Oil prices stumbled to US$75.96 per barrel in November vs US$81.02 per barrel in October. Since the September peak of US$93.68, oil prices declined 18.9%. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+, who account for 40% of the industry, have agreed to a voluntary production cut of 900,000 barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in addition to extending the 1.3 million bpd in production cuts already in place by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Despite broad based scepticism, production cuts would decrease the market’s supply and result in higher prices.

The increase in local short-term rates persisted in October while long term rates remained relatively unchanged. The 3-month rate experienced a slight uptick from 1.0% to 1.03% while the 6-month rate rose to 1.57%. The most significant yield movement was observed in the 2-year tenor which advanced to 2.56% from 1.94%. Local headline inflation, measured on a year-on-year basis, further softened in October at 1.3% vs 3.90% in September 2023.

At the end of October, Net Official reserves remain relatively flat, standing at US$6.4 billion, the equivalent of 8.0 months import cover vs US$6.3 billion or 7.9 months import cover in September. Liquidity dipped below TT$5.0 billion in October, the second lowest recorded month for the year, after its 2-year peak of TT$7.2 billion in August.

Within the local corporate bond space, the National Investment Fund (NIF) 2 is anticipated to come to market by year end. The demand for this five-year facility will likely capture the attention of investors due to limited local fixed income options and excess market liquidity.

In the bond market, global bonds experienced some recovery as yields plunged driven by speculations that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in 2024, even before achieving its inflation goals. Year over year the US headline CPI inflation rate fell by 0.5% to 3.2% while core CPI inflation slowed to 4.0%.

After touching 5.00% in October, the 10-year US treasury yield averaged around 4.5% during November, settling at a low of 4.37% to close the month. The spread between the 2-year yield and 10-year yield widened month on month to 0.36% in November relative to 0.19% in October.

Recent trends of easing inflation and lower consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may keep rates unchanged at the December policy meeting.

Fund of the Month

Scotia Caribbean Income Fund (US$)

-High Quality Fixed Income Instruments

-Low to Medium Risk

- Modest Capital Appreciation, Income