Issue No. 38

For the month of September, local equities continued its downward trajectory. The TT Composite Index decreased by 0.88%, led by contractions generated from the TT Cross Listed Index of 3.95%. NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) was the main decliner in the TT Cross Listed Index, falling 14.77% during the month. Further reductions in the share price of Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited (NGL) of 11.76% and West Indian Tobacco Company Limited (WCO) of 7.27%, resulted in a marginal drop in the All T&T Index of 0.03%. Market Activity during September was derived from 25 securities being traded of which 9 stocks advanced, 15 declined and 1 held firm.

During the month, FirstCaribbean International Limited (FCI) released its 9-month financial results ended July 2023. The Group generated an EPS of US$0.13, up from US $0.08 in 9M 2022. The company is expected to pay US$0.0125 dividend per share on October 13^th, 2023. Trinidad and Tobago continues to be challenged by foreign exchange headwinds and in an attempt to ease such concerns, the Central Bank injected a one off payment of US$ 50 million into the market. The earnings of companies that rely heavily on imports are likely to be negatively impacted.

Based on the market dynamics for the year thus far, the TT Composite Index is expected to close in a negative territory. However, investors may be provided with attractive entry points to invest in fundamentally strong stocks.

US equities lost its momentum for the second consecutive month, posting broad declines across the sectors. Losses increased this month with the S&P 500 Index posting a return of -4.87% (August: -1.77%) as investors reacted to the higher for longer rates announced by the FED. Ten of the eleven sectors were down, with Real Estate and Consumer Staples sectors delivering the biggest declines this month of -7.5% and -7.1% respectively.   

As largely expected by the market, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in September, signalling the likelihood of one more rate hike this year. According to the median estimate, rates are anticipated to reduce to 5.1% by the end of 2024, to further fall to 3.9% at the end of 2025 and 2.9% at the end of 2026.

US inflation increased in August to 3.7% compared to 3.2% in July 2023 but was significantly lower than its peak in June 2022 of 9.1%. Consumer sentiment stood at 68.1 in September when compared to 59.7 in December 2022.

Oil prices rallied to its highest level in September driven by global oil production cuts. Crude oil prices surged 8.6% to US$90.79 per barrel in September from US$83.63 per barrel in August. In addition to OPEC supply cuts, on September 5^th, Saudi Arabia announced the extension of its voluntary production cuts of one million barrels per day through to the end of the year. Moving forward, this is anticipated to yield positive results for the sector as oil prices are expected to remain at current high levels.

Given mixed economic data it is likely that the market volatility will continue towards the end of the year.

Local yields were generally higher across the August GORTT yield curve when compared to the prior month. The 6-month rate recorded a notable change this month, moving from 1.25% to 1.41% while the 10-year TT yield slipped marginally to 5.16% from 5.17%. Local headline inflation, measured on a year-on-year basis, softened to 4.00% in August vs 5.8% in June 2023.

Net Official reserves stumbled from $6.5 billion in July, the equivalent of 8.1 months import cover, to $6.3 billion in July, the equivalent of 7.8 months import cover. This is the lowest import cover recorded since April 2020, due to foreign exchange challenges. Liquidity remained healthy, increasing 31% month on month, from $5.5 billion in July to $7.2 billion in August.

Due to limited local fixed income securities in the market and increased market liquidity demand for these options is expected to remain high. For the remainder of the year, the corporate bond market is expected to remain relatively dormant.

For the 3^rd consecutive month, the US Investment Grade corporate spreads as measured by the CSI BBB Index remained relatively stable at 1.65% as at September 2023. Month on month yields along the US Treasury yield curve rose, with both the 20-year and 30-year yields exhibiting the most movement with a 53-point jump to close at 4.92% and 4.73% respectively.  The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.59% on September 30^th, higher when compared to a yield of 4.09% on August 31^st. This movement led to the narrowing of the US spread between the 2-year yield and 10-year yield of 0.44% in September vs a 0.76% spread in August. While the curve is expected to remain inverted, investors now brace for an extended period of elevated interest rates based on the Fed’s announcement.

Fund of the Month

Scotia Short Term Income Fund (TT$)

-Short Term Fixed Income Instruments

-Low Risk

- Capital Preservation, Liquidity