Issue No. 29

Markets Wrap

Local Equities

For the month ended December 2022 the TT Composite Index returned 2.12%, driven upwards by both its constituent indices. The All T&T Index increased by 2.32% stemming from gains in Agostini’s Holdings Limited (AGL) of 16.28%, Ansa McAl Limited (AMCL) of 8.42% and Guardian Holdings Limited of 4.57%. The TT Cross Listed Index increased by 1.43% over the month due to positive returns of 6.45% in FirstCaribbean International (FCI) and 4.95% in JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL). Over the month 13 stocks increased, 10 declined and 2 held firm. All indices declined during 2022 as negative sentiment permeated the market dragging prices downwards. Overall, companies reported improved earnings as pandemic restrictions were removed and businesses were able to operate at full capacity. Given the compressed valuations at present for 2023 we anticipate a modest appreciation in prices as investors re-enter positions as macro headwinds dissipate.

International Equities

For the month December 2022 the S&P 500 Index returned -5.90%.  In December investors continued to analyze the impact the pace of rate hikes will have on the economy.  The index was down -19.44% for the year-to-date period ended December 31st, its worst annual performance since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. All sectors declined over the month, with Technology and Communications being the largest detractors falling of -7.1% and -6.7% respectively. For the year just three sectors experienced growth and the Energy sector significantly outperformed with a return of 57%. Communications was the worst performing sector for the year, tumbling 27.2%. Throughout the year stubborn inflation and aggressive rate hikes depressed investor sentiment. Furthermore, investors were faced with continued Covid issues in China along with geopolitical problems.

In December the estimate for US’s third quarter GDP was revised upwards from 2.9% to 3.2% on an annualized basis, stemming from revisions to personal, government and services consumption. This gain followed two consecutive quarters of decline. Other reported economic indicators remain mixed with Retail Sales declined by -0.6% in November, more than the consensus forecast of -0.2%. Meanwhile consumer confidence, an indicator of future developments of household consumption and saving, rose by 6.80% to an eight-month high of 108.3 from 101.4 in November. The Central Bank has lowered its GDP forecast for 2023 from 1.2% to 0.5% and increased its inflation forecast from 2.8% to 3.1%.

Energy prices were relatively flat month on month with WTI Crude decreasing from $80.55 in November to $80.26 at the end of December. Several uncertainties will impact energy performance in 2023. A recovery in aviation to 2019 levels, the re-opening of China and the EU embargo on Russia can all lead to increased oil prices. Looking forward volatility is expected to persist but taking into account cooler inflation and a less hawkish Fed we are cautiously optimistic that a bounce in equity markets will follow the unprecedented declines experienced in 2023.

In seeking market outperformance, suggestions are for emphasis on traditionally defensive and conservatively valued sectors, along with individual companies with strong balance sheets and steady cash flows



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S&P 500









T&T Composite
















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Oil (WTI)



Nat Gas (HH)






Fund of the month:

Scotia Caribbean Income Fund (US$)

-Fixed Income securities issued by Caribbean corporations and governments

-Low to Medium Risk

Historical Returns (December 2022)







Local Fixed Income

Yields were modestly higher at all across the curve when compared to the prior month. The 1-year rate moved up slightly in December to 1.06% from 1.05% in November, while the 10-year moved from 5.16% to 5.18%.

Month over month liquidity decreased by 2.9% from $6.9 billion on November 30th, 2022, to $6.7 billion as at December 31st, 2022 but remains elevated versus its longer term average. Throughout 2022 both TTD Corporate and TTD Government issuances were relatively sparse. Private sector companies are slowly reentering the market and we expect additional corporate issues over the next six months. There was some recovery in exconomic activity in both the energy and non-energy sectors. The latest data showed that headline inflation came in at 6.2% in September. Food inflation, the main driver, registered at 11.6%.  The unemployment rate climbed from 4.5% in the second quarter of 2022 to 5.4% in the third quarter of 2022. Considering current economic conditions ,the Central bank held the repo rate at 3.5% in its last monetary policy report.

International Fixed Income

US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, decreased by -3.77% from   1.93% to 1.86% over the month of December. Over the year the index increased 53.6% from 1.21% in December 2021. The US 10-year Treasury yield increased over the period, from 3.61% on November 30th to 3.87% on December 31st.  The 10-year has risen 236 basis points this year, its biggest yearly climb in decades. The 2-year and 10-year yield remains inverted, the spread was at 0.54% at the end of December as the 2-year yield closed the year at 4.41%.  Looking forward into 2023, the Fed will continue to face higher than targeted inflation. As a result, interest rates are expected to be above 5% by the end of 2023. 

Market Highlights

Trading in Clico Investment Fund (CIF) was suspended on Friday 30th December 2022.CIF was terminated on Monday January 2nd in accordance with its Trust Deed. The transfer of its proceeds to unitholders on the register as at January 5th 2023 is expected to take place within the next month.

Investment Buzz

The expense ratio is the amount expressed as a percentage of total fund assets that unitholders pay annually for mutual fund operating expenses and management fees.

Mutual Funds

USD Funds

Scotia Money Market Fund


Scotia US Dollar Bond Fund


Scotia Caribbean Income Fund


Scotia US Equity Fund


Scotia Global Equity Fund


Scotia Canadian Equity Fund

TTD Funds

Scotia Trinidad & Tobago Fixed Income Fund


Scotia Trinidad & Tobago Growth and Income Fund


Scotia Trinidad & Tobago Short-Term Income Fund

Need more information regarding our Investment Solutions?

Speak with one of our investment specialists. 

Estelle Narine


Candice De Sormeaux


Adesha Gonzales


General Disclosures: 

This report has been prepared by Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited (“SITT”), a subsidiary of Scotiabank Trinidad and Tobago Limited. It is provided to you, our clients, for information purposes only and may not be redistributed. The information herein is believed to be reliable and includes information from public sources also believed to be reliable. While the objective is to provide information in a fair, clear and non-misleading manner, SITT does not represent or warrant that any information in the report is free from errors or omissions. Opinions and projections in this report are the views of the author(s) as at the date of this report.

The views expressed are subject to change and SITT has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion forecast or estimate herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. Neither SITT nor any of its officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or any of its contents. The securities discussed in this publication may not be suitable for all investors.

This report is provided to you for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any trading strategy.  This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in securities and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Nothing contained in this report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the future. The information in this publication is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those mentioned in this report. Scotia Investments Trinidad and Tobago Limited, its directors, or other officers may have a position in, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein.