Issue No. 28

For the month ended November 2022, the TT Composite Index returned -0.84%, pulled downwards by both its constituent indices. The All T&T Index decreased by -0.16% as gains in Republic Financial Holdings Limited (RFHL) of 4.51% and Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) of 3.33% were countered by declines in Ansa McAl Limited (AMCL) of -11.71% and Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) of -5.81%. The TT Cross Listed Index fell by -3.13% over the month as the negative returns of -9.00% in JMMB Group Limited (JMMBGL) and -4.39% in Grace Kennedy Company (GKC) weighed on the Index. Over the month 7 stocks increased, 13 declined and 5 held firm. Agostini’s limited (AGL) and NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) both released their year end financial results. AGL’s EPS improved from $2.05 to $2.91 in the year ended September 2022 whilst NCBFG’s EPS climbed from JA$6.25 to JA$11.89 cents in the year ended September 2022. Companies continue to report improved earnings throughout 2022.

During November the S&P 500 Index returned 5.38%, the second positive monthly return in a row. The Consumer Price Index report released in November initiated a rally, giving investors hope that inflation might ease in subsequent months. The index is now down      -14.39% for the year-to-date period ended November 30^th having hit a YTD low of -24.8% during the month prior. All sectors increased over the month, with Materials and Consumer Discretionary being the largest contributors registering growth of 7.6% and 5.9% respectively.

The estimate for US’s third quarter GDP was revised upwards from 2.6% to 2.9% on an annualized basis, stemming from revisions to business investment and consumer spending. Retails sales rose by 1.3% in October, above the consensus forecast of 1%. Meanwhile consumer confidence, an indicator of future developments of household consumption and saving, fell by -1.96% from 102.2 (revised figure) in October to 100.2 in November. The unemployment rate held firm at 3.7% in November. The job market remained relatively strong despite rising interest rates and layoffs in large technology and real estate companies. Inflation rose by 0.4% in October, 7.7% year on year, slightly below economists’ expectations. Economists expect inflation to moderate into the end of 2023 with the global inflation rate declining from its current pace of 9% to 5%.

Energy prices declined with WTI Crude decreasing from $86.53 in October to $80.55 at the end of November. The energy market continues to be volatile and future prices are dependent on several factors such as a recovery in oil demand from China, an increase in jet fuel consumption and the impact of the EU embargo on Russian oil. Furthermore, in late November several protests erupted in China suggesting major frustrations with Covid protocols and lockdown measures. The country is expected to ease some “zero-Covid” rules over the next few weeks.

In seeking market outperformance, suggestions are for emphasis on traditionally defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities. One’s investment focus should also remain towards stocks and sectors which are less cyclically sensitive and have balance sheets which are minimally exposed to a further rise in borrowing costs. 

Fund of the month:

Scotia Canadian Equity Fund (US$)

-Canadian Equity Investments

-Medium to High Risk

Yields were mostly unchanged on the shorter end and modestly higher on the middle and longer end of the curve when compared to the prior month. The 1-year rate was unchanged in October at 1.04%, while the 10-year moved from 5.12% to 5.10%.

Month over month liquidity increased by 8.9% from $6.3 billion on October 31st, 2022, to $6.9 billion as at November 30^th, 2022. Since the start of the year both TTD Corporate and TTD Government issuances have remained relatively sparse. The lack of activity on the bond market by the Government is most likely due to increased Government revenues along with Government financing being primarily via loans over the period. Private sector companies are slowly reentering the market and we expect additional corporate issues in the next six months.

US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, decreased by -10.77% from 2.16% to 1.93% over the month of November. The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased over the period, from 4.05% on October 31^st to 3.61% on November 30^th. Yields fell following the Fed’s signal that there is an increased likelihood of smaller rate hikes going forward. However, inflation remains significantly above the 2% target. As such the final policy rate at the end of the hiking cycle is likely to be much higher than initially expected. The 2-year and 10-year yield remains inverted, the spread was at 0.70% as the 2-year yield closed the month at 4.31%. An inversion between long and short rates is historically an accurate indicator of an impending recession.