Issue No.22

For the month ended May 2022, the TT Composite Index returned -1.63%, as both the All T&T Index and the Cross listed Index continued to register negative returns. The All T&T Index decreased by -0.56% with Plipdeco (PLD) and Trinidad Cement Limited (TCL) were the worst performers. The TT Cross Listed Index fell by -4.82% over the month as the negative returns of -6.58% in First Caribbean International (FCI) and -6.00% in Grace Kennedy limited (GKC) weighed on the Index. During the period Guardian Media Limited (GML) and GraceKennedy Limited (GKC) both released their quarterly financial results. GKC’s EPS improved by 4.8% from $1.67 to $1.75 in 2022 whilst GHL’s EPS advanced marginally, from $0.76 to $0.77. Over the month 7 stocks increased, 15 declined and 3 held firm.

The government recently  began a campaign for the vaccination of children ages 5 to 11.  They also removed the Travel Pass requirement for visitors entering Trinidad and Tobago. These actions are part of the plans to continue the  re-opening of the economy and to boost economic activity across the country. We continue to encourage persons to vaccinate as further advances in this area should bode positively for a continued increase in economic activity and by extension the markets.

During May the S&P 500 Index was flat with a return of 0.01% over the month. All sectors declined apart from the Consumer Staples and Energy sectors which rose by 1% and 0.8%. The Materials and Industrials sectors were the worst performers, returning -9.8% and -3.8% respectively. On a positive note, over 80% of listed companies have reported better than expected earning during earnings season. However, this has been overshadowed by several issues. One area of concern which has permeated the market is the high and rising rates of inflation occurring in most corners of the world. Additionally, the cycle of monetary tightening appears only to be in the early stages. Following a 0.25% increase in the interest rate in March the Fed hastened the pace of policy rate adjustment in May, raising the benchmark rate by 0.50%. The Fed has also indicated its intention to aggressively raise rates until inflation cools despite market volatility and concerns surrounding slowing economic growth. Economists have reduced U.S. growth expectations for 2022 to 3.2%, down from 3.8% estimated at the beginning of the year.  

The commodity price surge has been one of the major reasons behind the climb in the headline rate for global inflation. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine exacerbated these price increases. WTI Crude advanced from $104.69 in April to $114.67 at the end of May.

Despite an overall fall in U.S. GDP of 1.5% during the first quarter of 2022, consumer spending and investment remain solid and the labour market remains relatively robust. In a volatile market environment investment in companies with strong cash flows and resilient earnings, and diversification across sectors and regions can lend towards investor outperformance. 

Fund of the month:

Scotia Global Equity Fund

- Factor based ETFs

- Capital gains

- Medium to High Risk

Short term and long-term TTD rates were flat over the month while medium term rates were slightly higher. The 1-year rate was flat month over month at 0.71%, while the 5-year moved from 3.87% to 3.90%.

Since the start of the year both the TTD corporate and sovereign bond markets have remained relatively dormant with just two corporate issues coming to market. Month over month liquidity increased from $3.9 billion in April to $4.6 billion in May.

US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, increased from 1.79% to 1.82% over the month of May. The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased over the period, from 2.93% on April 30^th to 2.84% on May 31^st, after reaching a 1 year high of 3.13% on May 6^th.  Bonds began a pathway to recovery in May partially based on signs that the global economy is in danger of a recession and speculation that the interest rate hikes are largely priced in. The Fed has announced a drawdown of the balance sheet to begin in June which will gradually increase to US$95 million per month by September. Year over year the headline inflation rate increased by 6.3% in April, down from a gain of 6.6% in March. Inflation remains well above the Central Bank’s target rate and will continue to drive policy action.