Issue No.18

For the month ended January 2022, the TT Composite Index returned 1.72%, led upwards by both the All T&T Index and the Cross listed Index. The share prices of Agostini’s Limited (AGL) and Angostura Holdings Limited (AHL) drove the All T&T Index higher, rising by 36.92% and 11.06% respectively. The TT Cross Listed Index was up 0.37% during January 2022, as positive returns of 2.62% and 0.82% in Jamaica Money Market Group Limited (JMMBGL) and NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) boosted the Index. At the end of the month First Citizens Group Financial Holdings (FCGFH) released their year end financial results. The group’s EPS increased 10% from $2.40 in 2020 to $2.64 in 2021. For the month of January the price of FCGFH rose by 3.53%. During the month 13 stocks increased, 10 declined and 2 held firm. 

The government continued the easing of COVID restrictions, extending the beach hours to 5am to 6pm. Students in forms 1-3 in secondary school, who have been at home since the start of the pandemic, will return to the physical classroom on a rotational basis from February 7th. Furthermore, the government has announced a “Taste of Carnival” with a list of events expected to cost an estimated $15 million. These actions indicate the desire of the government for a slow resumption to pre-pandemic activities. We continue to encourage persons to vaccinate as further advances in this area should bode positively for increased economic activity and by extension the markets. 

The equity markets pulled back in the first month of 2022 as investors worried that the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy more aggressively than initially forecast as it combats inflation. Technology shares were hit hard in January, as concerns over rising inflation and fears that higher rates would raise operating costs and discount future cash flows scared off investors. The S&P 500 Index reported a negative return of -5.26% over the month. All sectors reported negative returns apart from the Energy sector. The Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors were the worst performers, returning -8.9%, -8.8% and -7.9% respectively. Meanwhile the Energy sector posted a return of 15.7%. Crude oil prices continued climbing, moving to $88.15 in January from $75.21 at the end of December. Prices are being driven upwards by a growing disparity between supply and demand along with geopolitical tensions. The global economy is currently transitioning from being heavily dependant on policy stimulus to a self-sustaining state. Policy makers around the world are reducing fiscal stimulus and the central banks are in preparation for or discussing a lift in benchmark interest rates. 

Volatility persisted throughout the month as investors moved between nervousness over Federal Reserve tightening and confidence in the continued global economic recovery. Continued volatility is anticipated in 2022 with the combination of higher interest rates, higher inflation and moderating earnings growth causing anxiety in the market. Moving forward, growth is expected to be driven by a strong consumer, higher capital expenditures and inventory rebuilding by businesses. However,risk to the recovery such as stubborn inflation, geopolitical risks and pandemic flare-ups remain. In the U.S average new COVID cases and deaths have been on the rise in the last month. Hospitalizations have also increased as the omicron variant proves itself to be the most contagious variant so far. Consumer and business reactions to negative COVID news are now less severe than in the past, evidenced by the lack of widespread shutdowns. 

Fund of the Month

Scotia Canadian Equity Fund

1. High quality money market instruments and short term fixed income securities 
2. Low Risk 

Short term TTD rates again declined marginally over the month. The 1-year rate slipped further downwards from 0.40% to 0.37%. The rate has a one year low of 0.22% in December 2020 and a high of 0.54% in March 2021. In the first month of the year demand for plain vanilla GORTT and GORTT agencies’ securities remained strong. At the start of the year the corporate bond market remained relatively dormant with no new coming to market during the period. System liquidity increased over January, moving from TT$4.5BN at the end of December to $5.1BN by January 31st.

US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, increased by 11.6% from 1.21% to 1.35% over the month of January as bonds sold off in the face of expectations for higher interest rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield increased over the period, from 1.51% on December 31 st to 1.78% on January 31st . The US Federal Reserve announced it would likely end its monthly bond buying program in March, the same month as the first rate hike is forecast to take place. Investors are still adjusting to this hawkish tone of the Fed. As a result, economists expect the 10-year yield to cross 2% in 2022. Inflation remains at the forefront and economists expect it to hover above 4% this year.