Issue No.17

For the month ended December 2021, the TT Composite Index returned 3.03%, led upwards by the Trinidad and Tobago All T&T Index which climbed by 4.20%. The share prices of Agostini’s Limited (AGL) and MASSY Holdings Limited (MASSY) drove the index higher, rising by 32.65% and 16.77% respectively. The TT Cross Listed Index was up 0.16% during December 2021, as positive returns in Jamaica Money Market Group Limited (JMMBGL) and NCB Financial Group Limited (NCBFG) were countered by negative returns in Grace Kennedy Limited (GKC) and FirstCaribbean International (FCI). At the end of the month SBTT released their year end financial results. The company’s EPS increased 15.9% from $2.95 in 2020 to $3.42 in 2021. Since the release of their year end results the price of SBTT has risen 4.4%. During the month 16 stocks increased, 8 declined and 1 held firm.

The government continued the easing of COVID restrictions, allowing the reopening of beaches from 5am to 12 noon. Local activity has increased and behaviours adjusted as persons came to terms with the likelihood that COVID-19 will be around for a long time. To date over 670,000 citizens or 48% of the population have had at least one dose of the vaccine, with booster shots now readily available to all persons. We continue to encourage persons to vaccinate as further advances in this area should bode positively for increased economic activity and by extension the markets.

Volatility persisted in 2021 as two contagious variants, Omicron and Delta, placed fear in the markets. On January 3^rd more than one million people in the U.S. were diagnosed with COVID-19, a new global daily record. Despite a contagious variant, vaccines have proven largely effective and there was a continuous increase in vaccination numbers. Consumer behaviour has altered, reactions to new outbreaks are less severe and the CDC now recommends a reduced quarantine time of 5 days instead of 10 days. U.S GDP for 2021 is estimated at 5.6%. The IMF projects a growth rate of 4.9% in 2022 based on a vaccine powered recovery, inventory rebuilding and a strong consumer. In December policy makers doubled the proposed pace of tapering from $15 billion to $30 billion per month. Following the conclusion of the asset purchase program investors are expecting three interest rate hikes by the end of 2022.

The S&P 500 Index reported a positive return of 4.36% in December as the market noted a gradual return to normal activities and a general increase in vaccination.  All sectors reported positive returns. The Communications, Consumer Staples and Real Estate sectors were the best performers, returning 10.3%, 10.0% and 9.9% respectively. Robust earnings growth has continued to push equity markets upwards.

Crude oil prices rebounded to $75.21 in December from $66.18 at the end of November. Global oil demand is expected to increase in 2022 as containment measures put in place to slow the spread of the virus are likely to result in a more muted impact on the economy. Markets anticipate an uptick in volatility as they navigate through the Omicron variant, supply-chain disruptions and more central banks winding back pandemic stimulus. Moving forward, growth is likely to slow from its average in 2021 as new variants are discovered, supply shortages remain, and pandemic stimulus tapers off.

Fund of the Month

Scotia Canadian Equity Fund

1. Canadian Equity Investments .

2. Medium-High Risk.

Short term TTD rates again declined marginally over the month. The 1-year rate slipped further downwards from 0.42% to 0.40%. The rate has a one year low of 0.22% in December 2020 and a high of 0.54% in March 2021. Local food inflation surged to 7.6% in October from 5.8% in September and is likely to rise even further given international commodity prices, higher shipping costs, transportation delays and adverse weather conditions.

Throughout the year demand for plain vanilla GORTT and GORTT agencies’ securities remained strong. The corporate bond market remained relatively dormant with few issues coming to market during the year. System liquidity fell drastically in December, moving from TT$7.4BN at the beginning of the month to $4.5BN by December 31^st. 

US Investment Grade corporate spreads, as measured by the CSI BBB Index, fell by -3.24% over the month of December. The US 10-year Treasury yield increased over the period, from 1.44% on November 30^th to 1.51% on December 31^st. During the later half of the year growth concerns and a slowdown in long term inflation expectations led to a pull back in the US 10-year yield from the high of 1.74% in March 2021. Investors expect the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year and Bloomberg strategists are suggesting that treasury yields will end 2022 at higher levels (above 2%).  The Fed has now shifted to a more hawkish tone with the Chairman suggesting that asset purchases could end months earlier than previously announced.